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Why is the Line Better Than the Computers? This is an easy question and won't take much effort or space to answer. Computer ratings only have one interest: To determine which team is better than which. The Line has a totally different goal: To pick which of two teams will win the game. There is also another reason, of course: To make money no matter which team wins. Computer ratings are not involved in gambling - or shouldn't be - and do not add many factors about an individual game. To computer ratings, it does not matter who is or isn't playing, what the weather is like, whether one team "owns" another team, or where the game is being played. Computer ratings are not more than a base to which one must add factors such as these to decide which team will win a game. Treat them as such. Computer ratings should be pure and unbiased. There should not be any tweaks made to the ratings to favor one team over another because of any of this type of factor. Computer ratings are a reflection of what has happened up to this point, not what will happen next week. It happens that certain computer rating systems such as mine might have a knack for beating the spread most of the time, but no rating system should be designed that way. Any computer ratings that are designed specifically to use to gamble are not true to the fan. If a system does well against the line, it should be accidental, not deliberate. However, to me, there is nothing wrong with changing a computer system's formula to make it do better at picking game winners. After all, the whole purpose of computer ratings is to get as many games correct as possible. Without the weekly tweaks. |
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