Tracking the Oddsmakers
|
|
A good indicator of a team's quality is how the opening odds rate them. You
didn't know Vegas had
favorites? All you see in the odds are the expected margins of victory. How can
you compare two teams
if they aren't playing this week and you have no odds to go by? That's easy.
I've done it for you.
This chart aligns the teams according to how the odds makers set the margins
of victory week
by week.
Though there are problems - such as the wave created when, for example, a
heavily-favored team loses -
most changes are slight. The ranking is very interesting as you can see which
teams the odds makers favor.
Surprising, isn't it? Yet if you go to Todd Beck's Prediction
Tracker, you
will see that they are very accurate
year after year.
But how can you argue?
NFL
15 Jan 2007
| 1 | New England | 84.01 |
| 2 | Indianapolis | 78.80 |
| 3 | Dallas | 78.18 |
| 4 | Green Bay | 77.68 |
| 5 | Jacksonville | 74.71 |
| 6 | Minnesota | 73.95 |
| 7 | Giants | 73.68 |
| 8 | Houston | 72.91 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | 72.01 |
| 10 | Cleveland | 71.99 |
| 11 | Seattle | 71.67 |
| 12 | San Diego | 71.51 |
| 13 | Tennessee | 71.33 |
| 14 | Philadelphia | 71.04 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay | 71.02 |
| 16 | Washington | 70.66 |
| 17 | New Orleans | 69.87 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 68.94 |
| 19 | Arizona | 68.08 |
| 20 | Denver | 67.95 |
| 21 | Baltimore | 67.60 |
| 22 | Jets | 66.71 |
| 23 | Buffalo | 66.54 |
| 24 | Detroit | 66.17 |
| 25 | Chicago | 65.87 |
| 26 | Saint Louis | 65.08 |
| 27 | San Francisco | 63.49 |
| 28 | Oakland | 63.41 |
| 29 | Kansas City | 63.21 |
| 30 | Miami | 62.94 |
| 31 | Carolina | 62.84 |
| 32 | Atlanta | 62.62 |
NCAA
8 Dec 2007 FINAL
| 1 | Oklahoma | 130.94 |
| 2 | USC | 130.45 |
| 3 | Florida | 128.20 |
| 4 | West Virginia | 127.44 |
| 5 | LSU | 126.93 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 125.93 |
| 7 | Texas | 124.66 |
| 8 | Virginia Tech | 123.97 |
| 9 | Kansas | 123.47 |
| 10 | Georgia | 123.25 |
| 11 | Michigan | 121.20 |
| 12 | Penn State | 121.16 |
| 13 | Texas Tech | 121.13 |
| 14 | Missouri | 120.95 |
| 15 | Arkansas | 120.95 |
| 16 | South Florida | 120.58 |
| 17 | Auburn | 120.33 |
| 18 | BYU | 120.01 |
| 19 | Illinois | 119.95 |
| 20 | Arizona State | 119.66 |
| 21 | Clemson | 119.33 |
| 22 | Tennessee | 119.20 |
| 23 | Wisconsin | 119.20 |
| 24 | Hawaii | 117.75 |
| 25 | Arizona | 117.28 |
| 26 | Oregon State | 117.12 |
| 27 | Oregon | 117.08 |
| 28 | UCLA | 117.01 |
| 29 | Cincinnati | 116.83 |
| 30 | Oklahoma State | 116.14 |
| 31 | Maryland | 116.12 |
| 32 | Florida State | 115.98 |
| 33 | California | 115.51 |
| 34 | Boston College | 115.42 |
| 35 | Indiana | 115.14 |
| 36 | Air Force | 115.01 |
| 37 | Michigan State | 114.92 |
| 38 | Kentucky | 114.48 |
| 39 | South Carolina | 114.48 |
| 40 | Alabama | 114.05 |
| 41 | Louisville | 113.91 |
| 42 | Colorado | 113.55 |
| 43 | C. Florida | 113.43 |
| 44 | Boise State | 112.86 |
| 45 | Connecticut | 112.71 |
| 46 | Wake Forest | 112.71 |
| 47 | Texas A&M | 112.66 |
| 48 | Georgia Tech | 112.54 |
| 49 | TCU | 112.33 |
| 50 | Washington State | 112.28 |
| 51 | Rutgers | 112.16 |
| 52 | Virginia | 112.13 |
| 53 | Purdue | 112.09 |
| 54 | Utah | 111.87 |
| 55 | Washington | 111.78 |
| 56 | Kansas State | 111.58 |
| 57 | Fresno State | 111.04 |
| 58 | Iowa | 110.65 |
| 59 | North Carolina | 108.85 |
| 60 | Southern Miss | 108.83 |
| 61 | Nebraska | 108.42 |
| 62 | Troy State | 108.14 |
| 63 | Mississippi State | 107.43 |
| 64 | NC State | 107.23 |
| 65 | Vanderbilt | 107.18 |
| 66 | Northwestern | 107.17 |
| 67 | C. Michigan | 106.59 |
| 68 | Navy | 106.37 |
| 69 | Miami | 106.23 |
| 70 | Mississippi | 106.22 |
| 71 | Stanford | 106.05 |
| 72 | Houston | 105.83 |
| 73 | East Carolina | 105.36 |
| 74 | Ball State | 105.16 |
| 75 | Tulsa | 104.44 |
| 76 | Notre Dame | 103.94 |
| 77 | Pittsburgh | 103.70 |
| 78 | Bowling Green | 102.94 |
| 79 | New Mexico | 102.71 |
| 80 | Nevada | 102.71 |
| 81 | Iowa State | 102.50 |
| 82 | Minnesota | 101.67 |
| 83 | Wyoming | 101.50 |
| 84 | Colorado State | 101.50 |
| 85 | W. Michigan | 100.27 |
| 86 | San Diego State | 99.79 |
| 87 | Florida Atlantic | 99.10 |
| 88 | UNLV | 98.18 |
| 89 | Duke | 97.85 |
| 90 | UTEP | 97.61 |
| 91 | Baylor | 97.50 |
| 92 | Marshall | 97.12 |
| 93 | Toledo | 96.75 |
| 94 | Buffalo | 96.60 |
| 95 | Middle Tenn | 96.53 |
| 96 | Syracuse | 96.49 |
| 97 | Arkansas State | 96.16 |
| 98 | Ohio | 95.78 |
| 99 | Kent State | 95.10 |
| 100 | Miami OH | 94.35 |
| 101 | Louisiana Tech | 94.24 |
| 102 | Tulane | 93.95 |
| 103 | NM State | 93.86 |
| 104 | La-Monroe | 93.83 |
| 105 | Memphis | 93.60 |
| 106 | San Jose State | 93.59 |
| 107 | Akron | 93.42 |
| 108 | E. Michigan | 92.21 |
| 109 | Rice | 92.15 |
| 110 | SMU | 92.06 |
| 111 | Army | 92.02 |
| 112 | Temple | 91.77 |
| 113 | Northern Illinois | 91.23 |
| 114 | La-Lafayette | 87.83 |
| 115 | Utah State | 87.19 |
| 116 | Idaho | 86.69 |
| 117 | North Texas | 85.77 |
| 118 | UAB | 85.62 |
| 119 | Florida Int'l | 80.27 |
| 120 | W. Kentucky | 75.75 |
- Take a certain amount of money you won't miss.
- Pick some games using whatever method or service you prefer.
- Never, ever bet more than ten per cent on any single game. Ever.
- Never bet more than half your money on any particular day. Hold at least half for next time.
- When the money runs out, quit. Seek another profession.
It's that simple.
