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A good indicator of a team's quality is how the opening odds rate them. You
didn't know Vegas had
favorites? All you see in the odds are the expected margins of victory. How can
you compare two teams
if they aren't playing this week and you have no odds to go by? That's easy.
I've done it for you.
This chart aligns the teams according to how the odds makers set the margins
of victory week
by week.
Though there are problems - such as the wave created when, for example, a
heavily-favored team loses -
most changes are slight. The ranking is very interesting as you can see which
teams the odds makers favor.
Surprising, isn't it? Yet if you go to Todd Beck's Prediction
Tracker, you
will see that they are very accurate
year after year.
How can you argue?
NCAA Ranking
NFL
January 13, 2009
The last column indicates the imaginary rating that the oddsmakers
would give the teams based upon the point spread and considering
a simple three point home field advantage.
| 1 |
Dallas |
76.36 |
| 2 |
Arizona |
76.21 |
| 3 |
New Orleans |
75.29 |
| 4 |
Minnesota |
74.79 |
| 5 |
Philadelphia |
74.65 |
| 6 |
Indianapolis |
74.34 |
| 7 |
San Diego |
74.27 |
| 8 |
New England |
74.20 |
| 9 |
Houston |
73.79 |
| 10 |
Green Bay |
73.78 |
| 11 |
Tennessee |
72.68 |
| 12 |
Cincinnati |
72.17 |
| 13 |
Pittsburgh |
72.15 |
| 14 |
Baltimore |
71.41 |
| 15 |
San Francisco |
71.11 |
| 16 |
Miami |
70.88 |
| 17 |
Denver |
70.74 |
| 18 |
Giants |
70.59 |
| 19 |
Washington |
70.36 |
| 20 |
Jets |
70.34 |
| 21 |
Atlanta |
69.89 |
| 22 |
Chicago |
67.75 |
| 23 |
Carolina |
66.56 |
| 24 |
Jacksonville |
66.13 |
| 25 |
Cleveland |
64.63 |
| 26 |
Seattle |
64.18 |
| 27 |
Buffalo |
64.14 |
| 28 |
Tampa Bay |
63.89 |
| 29 |
Detroit |
61.34 |
| 30 |
Oakland |
61.10 |
| 31 |
Kansas City |
60.74 |
| 32 |
Saint Louis |
60.11 |
NCAA
25 August 2010
The last column indicates the imaginary rating that the oddsmakers
would give the teams based upon the point spread and considering
a simple three point home field advantage.
| 1 |
Alabama |
129.24 |
| 2 |
Florida |
128.55 |
| 3 |
Texas |
126.62 |
| 4 |
TCU |
126.47 |
| 5 |
Ohio State |
124.85 |
| 6 |
Boise State |
124.48 |
| 7 |
Oklahoma |
124.16 |
| 8 |
Oregon |
122.95 |
| 9 |
Penn State |
122.63 |
| 10 |
Mississippi |
120.93 |
| 11 |
Georgia Tech |
120.77 |
| 12 |
USC |
119.10 |
| 13 |
Virginia Tech |
118.98 |
| 14 |
Stanford |
118.73 |
| 15 |
Miami |
118.47 |
| 16 |
Oregon State |
118.47 |
| 17 |
North Carolina |
118.42 |
| 18 |
South Carolina |
118.32 |
| 19 |
Arkansas |
118.15 |
| 20 |
Auburn |
117.86 |
| 21 |
Texas Tech |
117.73 |
| 22 |
Iowa |
117.27 |
| 23 |
Cincinnati |
116.90 |
| 24 |
Nebraska |
116.63 |
| 25 |
Tennessee |
116.59 |
| 26 |
Missouri |
116.36 |
| 27 |
Arizona |
116.11 |
| 28 |
Notre Dame |
115.81 |
| 29 |
Georgia |
115.47 |
| 30 |
LSU |
115.42 |
| 31 |
Michigan State |
115.20 |
| 32 |
Nevada |
115.02 |
| 33 |
Houston |
114.83 |
| 34 |
Florida State |
114.82 |
| 35 |
Clemson |
114.80 |
| 36 |
Wisconsin |
114.29 |
| 37 |
California |
114.13 |
| 38 |
Pittsburgh |
113.92 |
| 39 |
Utah |
113.92 |
| 40 |
UCLA |
113.90 |
| 41 |
Fresno State |
113.90 |
| 42 |
Tulsa |
113.88 |
| 43 |
West Virginia |
113.82 |
| 44 |
C. Michigan |
112.09 |
| 45 |
Connecticut |
112.01 |
| 46 |
Michigan |
112.01 |
| 47 |
Boston College |
111.96 |
| 48 |
Wake Forest |
111.58 |
| 49 |
Texas A&M |
111.49 |
| 50 |
Mississippi State |
111.41 |
| 51 |
BYU |
110.68 |
| 52 |
Washington |
110.68 |
| 53 |
Rutgers |
110.20 |
| 54 |
Kentucky |
110.11 |
| 55 |
Kansas State |
109.90 |
| 56 |
South Florida |
109.73 |
| 57 |
Troy State |
109.57 |
| 58 |
Kansas |
109.29 |
| 59 |
Arizona State |
109.22 |
| 60 |
Purdue |
108.81 |
| 61 |
Colorado |
108.65 |
| 62 |
Northwestern |
108.33 |
| 63 |
Air Force |
107.83 |
| 64 |
Temple |
107.53 |
| 65 |
Southern Miss |
107.32 |
| 66 |
SMU |
107.23 |
| 67 |
Oklahoma State |
107.12 |
| 68 |
Indiana |
106.54 |
| 69 |
Navy |
106.39 |
| 70 |
Illinois |
106.36 |
| 71 |
C. Florida |
106.20 |
| 72 |
NC State |
106.07 |
| 73 |
Middle Tenn |
105.91 |
| 74 |
Iowa State |
105.64 |
| 75 |
Northern Illinois |
105.64 |
| 76 |
Minnesota |
104.91 |
| 77 |
East Carolina |
104.88 |
| 78 |
Ohio |
104.79 |
| 79 |
Duke |
104.58 |
| 80 |
Baylor |
104.09 |
| 81 |
Virginia |
104.05 |
| 82 |
Maryland |
103.39 |
| 83 |
UAB |
102.75 |
| 84 |
Vanderbilt |
102.33 |
| 85 |
Louisiana Tech |
101.91 |
| 86 |
Louisville |
101.61 |
| 87 |
Marshall |
99.85 |
| 88 |
Idaho |
99.54 |
| 89 |
Buffalo |
99.41 |
| 90 |
UTEP |
99.13 |
| 91 |
Toledo |
99.11 |
| 92 |
Utah State |
98.66 |
| 93 |
Bowling Green |
98.57 |
| 94 |
W. Michigan |
97.70 |
| 95 |
Akron |
97.38 |
| 96 |
Hawaii |
97.10 |
| 97 |
La-Monroe |
97.06 |
| 98 |
San Diego State |
96.60 |
| 99 |
Miami OH |
96.55 |
| 100 |
Washington State |
96.12 |
| 101 |
North Texas |
95.80 |
| 102 |
Wyoming |
95.71 |
| 103 |
Rice |
95.62 |
| 104 |
Colorado State |
95.15 |
| 105 |
Kent State |
94.91 |
| 106 |
Memphis |
94.41 |
| 107 |
Florida Int'l |
94.30 |
| 108 |
UNLV |
94.29 |
| 109 |
San Jose State |
94.24 |
| 110 |
La-Lafayette |
93.97 |
| 111 |
Army |
93.87 |
| 112 |
Syracuse |
93.38 |
| 113 |
Florida Atlantic |
92.75 |
| 114 |
New Mexico |
91.95 |
| 115 |
Ball State |
90.96 |
| 116 |
Arkansas State |
90.86 |
| 117 |
Tulane |
87.83 |
| 118 |
W. Kentucky |
84.63 |
| 119 |
E. Michigan |
83.37 |
| 120 |
NM State |
80.76 |
How to Gamble
I neither promote nor discourage gambling. However, many people ruin their lives
doing it. Here is a formula you can follow to make sure you aren't one of them.
- Take a certain amount of money you won't miss.
- Pick some games using whatever method or service you prefer.
- Never, ever bet more than ten per cent on any single game. Ever.
- Never bet more than half your money on any particular day. Hold at least
half for next time.
- When the money runs out, quit. Seek another profession.
It's that simple.
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