Tracking the Oddsmakers

Tracking the Oddsmakers

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Tracking the Oddsmakers

How to Gamble

A good indicator of a team's quality is how the opening odds rate them. You didn't know Vegas had
favorites? All you see in the odds are the expected margins of victory. How can you compare two teams
if they aren't playing this week and you have no odds to go by? That's easy. I've done it for you.

This chart aligns the teams according to how the odds makers set the margins of victory week by week.
Though there are problems - such as the wave created when, for example, a heavily-favored team loses -
most changes are slight. The ranking is very interesting as you can see which teams the odds makers favor.

Surprising, isn't it? Yet if you go to Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker, you will see that they are very accurate
year after year.

How can you argue?

NCAA Ranking

NFL
January 13, 2009

The first column indicates the imaginary rating that the oddsmakers
would give the teams based upon the point spread and considering
a simple three point home field advantage. The second column
indicates how much the rating increased or decreased from last week.
A 0.00 change probably means the team isn't playing this week or
the opening line was delayed, in which case you can figure out near
what it should be. The change does not indicate how a team played
last week but an average of how they and their next opponent played.

1	Dallas	76.36	0.00
2	Arizona	76.21	0.00
3	New Orleans	75.29	1.58
4	Minnesota	74.79	-1.57
5	Philadelphia	74.65	0.00
6	Indianapolis	74.34	-0.57
7	San Diego	74.27	0.00
8	New England	74.20	0.00
9	Houston	73.79	0.00
10	Green Bay	73.78	0.00
11	Tennessee	72.68	0.00
12	Cincinnati	72.17	0.00
13	Pittsburgh	72.15	0.00
14	Baltimore	71.41	0.00
15	San Francisco	71.11	0.00
16	Miami	70.88	0.00
17	Denver	70.74	0.00
18	Giants	70.59	0.00
19	Washington	70.36	0.00
20	Jets	70.34	0.57
21	Atlanta	69.89	0.00
22	Chicago	67.75	0.00
23	Carolina	66.56	0.00
24	Jacksonville	66.13	0.00
25	Cleveland	64.63	0.00
26	Seattle	64.18	0.00
27	Buffalo	64.14	0.00
28	Tampa Bay	63.89	0.00
29	Detroit	61.34	0.00
30	Oakland	61.10	0.00
31	Kansas City	60.74	0.00
32	Saint Louis	60.11	0.00

NCAA
15 December 2009

I'll tell you what I'm thinking. They've had Texas well ahead of Alabama
all season. Suddenly, there's a seven-point shift. My analysis is that
Vegas is planning to make a killing off all the Alabama hype.

1	Alabama	134.56	7.22
2	Florida	132.59	-2.75
3	Texas	130.56	-7.22
4	TCU	126.87	-1.11
5	Oregon	125.91	2.75
6	Oklahoma	125.73	0.86
7	Ohio State	123.91	-2.74
8	Texas Tech	122.94	0.35
9	Boise State	122.87	1.11
10	Penn State	122.63	1.34
11	Cincinnati	122.09	2.76
12	Mississippi	120.93	0.72
13	Georgia Tech	120.77	-0.74
14	Virginia Tech	120.59	0.54
15	LSU	119.63	-1.33
16	USC	118.96	-2.20
17	Stanford	118.73	-0.85
18	Miami	118.47	1.27
19	Oklahoma State	118.43	-0.71
20	Arkansas	118.15	0.19
21	Clemson	118.07	0.56
22	Oregon State	118.07	-0.09
23	Arizona	117.72	1.56
24	Nebraska	117.72	-1.56
25	Iowa	117.27	0.75
26	Tennessee	116.59	-0.54
27	South Carolina	116.37	0.36
28	Pittsburgh	116.20	-1.13
29	BYU	115.57	0.10
30	Missouri	115.52	-1.27
31	Georgia	115.49	1.99
32	Nevada	115.02	0.31
33	Houston	114.83	2.50
34	Florida State	114.82	-0.61
35	Michigan State	114.44	-0.35
36	North Carolina	114.20	1.13
37	California	114.13	-0.66
38	West Virginia	113.82	0.61
39	Connecticut	113.37	-0.36
40	Notre Dame	112.58	0.00
41	Kansas State	112.26	0.00
42	Auburn	112.18	-1.06
43	C. Michigan	112.09	-0.63
44	Purdue	112.04	0.00
45	Wisconsin	111.97	-1.26
46	Boston College	111.96	2.21
47	Utah	111.63	0.66
48	Wake Forest	111.58	0.00
49	UCLA	111.53	-0.07
50	Texas A&M	111.49	-1.99
51	Michigan	110.65	0.00
52	Tulsa	110.61	0.00
53	Kentucky	110.57	-0.56
54	Mississippi State	110.21	0.00
55	Rutgers	110.20	-0.01
56	South Florida	109.73	0.50
57	Navy	109.52	1.27
58	Kansas	109.29	0.00
59	Southern Miss	109.27	0.80
60	Arizona State	109.22	0.00
61	Fresno State	108.71	1.52
62	Colorado	108.57	0.00
63	East Carolina	108.15	-0.18
64	Air Force	107.83	-2.50
65	Northwestern	107.68	1.07
66	Troy State	107.59	0.64
67	Minnesota	107.54	1.02
68	Temple	107.53	0.08
69	Illinois	107.19	0.00
70	Indiana	106.54	0.00
71	C. Florida	106.20	0.01
72	NC State	106.07	0.00
73	Iowa State	106.04	-1.02
74	Washington	105.79	0.00
75	Northern Illinois	105.23	-0.49
76	Ohio	104.79	4.34
77	Duke	104.58	0.00
78	Baylor	104.09	0.00
79	Virginia	104.05	0.00
80	Middle Tenn	103.27	-0.79
81	Vanderbilt	102.98	0.00
82	SMU	102.02	-0.31
83	Louisiana Tech	101.91	0.00
84	Louisville	101.14	0.00
85	Marshall	100.79	-4.34
86	Bowling Green	100.54	-2.45
87	Maryland	100.25	0.00
88	UAB	100.19	0.00
89	Idaho	99.54	2.45
90	Buffalo	99.41	0.00
91	UTEP	99.13	0.00
92	W. Michigan	98.46	0.00
93	Toledo	97.49	0.00
94	Hawaii	97.23	0.00
95	Utah State	97.09	0.00
96	La-Monroe	97.06	0.00
97	Syracuse	96.76	0.00
98	San Diego State	96.60	0.00
99	UNLV	96.60	0.00
100	Arkansas State	96.54	0.00
101	Wyoming	95.71	-1.52
102	Memphis	95.61	0.00
103	Florida Atlantic	95.30	0.00
104	Colorado State	95.23	0.00
105	Kent State	94.91	0.00
106	Army	94.75	0.00
107	Florida Int'l	94.30	0.00
108	Akron	93.99	0.00
109	La-Lafayette	93.95	0.00
110	North Texas	92.52	0.00
111	Miami OH	92.50	0.00
112	Rice	91.68	0.00
113	Ball State	90.96	0.00
114	New Mexico	88.98	0.00
115	San Jose State	88.91	0.00
116	Tulane	87.83	0.00
117	Washington State	84.81	0.00
118	W. Kentucky	83.54	0.00
119	E. Michigan	82.49	0.00
120	NM State	80.76	0.00

How to Gamble

I neither promote nor discourage gambling. However, many people ruin their lives doing it. Here is a formula you can follow to make sure you aren't one of them.

Take a certain amount of money you won't miss.
Pick some games using whatever method or service you prefer.
Never, ever bet more than ten per cent on any single game. Ever.
Never bet more than half your money on any particular day. Hold at least half for next time.
When the money runs out, quit. Seek another profession.

It's that simple.