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Tracking the Oddsmakers

How to Gamble

 

Football Predictions

A good indicator of a team's quality is how the opening odds rate them. You didn't know Vegas had
favorites? All you see in the odds are the expected margins of victory. How can you compare two teams
if they aren't playing this week and you have no odds to go by? That's easy. I've done it for you.

This chart aligns the teams according to how the odds makers set the margins of victory week by week.
Though there are problems - such as the wave created when, for example, a heavily-favored team loses -
most changes are slight. The ranking is very interesting as you can see which teams the odds makers favor.

Surprising, isn't it? Yet if you go to Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker, you will see that they are very accurate
year after year.

But how can you argue?

NFL
15 Jan 2007

1 New England 84.01
2 Indianapolis 78.80
3 Dallas 78.18
4 Green Bay 77.68
5 Jacksonville 74.71
6 Minnesota 73.95
7 Giants 73.68
8 Houston 72.91
9 Pittsburgh 72.01
10 Cleveland 71.99
11 Seattle 71.67
12 San Diego 71.51
13 Tennessee 71.33
14 Philadelphia 71.04
15 Tampa Bay 71.02
16 Washington 70.66
17 New Orleans 69.87
18 Cincinnati 68.94
19 Arizona 68.08
20 Denver 67.95
21 Baltimore 67.60
22 Jets 66.71
23 Buffalo 66.54
24 Detroit 66.17
25 Chicago 65.87
26 Saint Louis 65.08
27 San Francisco 63.49
28 Oakland 63.41
29 Kansas City 63.21
30 Miami 62.94
31 Carolina 62.84
32 Atlanta 62.62

NCAA
8 Dec 2007 FINAL

1 Oklahoma 130.94
2 USC 130.45
3 Florida 128.20
4 West Virginia 127.44
5 LSU 126.93
6 Ohio State 125.93
7 Texas 124.66
8 Virginia Tech 123.97
9 Kansas 123.47
10 Georgia 123.25
11 Michigan 121.20
12 Penn State 121.16
13 Texas Tech 121.13
14 Missouri 120.95
15 Arkansas 120.95
16 South Florida 120.58
17 Auburn 120.33
18 BYU 120.01
19 Illinois 119.95
20 Arizona State 119.66
21 Clemson 119.33
22 Tennessee 119.20
23 Wisconsin 119.20
24 Hawaii 117.75
25 Arizona 117.28
26 Oregon State 117.12
27 Oregon 117.08
28 UCLA 117.01
29 Cincinnati 116.83
30 Oklahoma State 116.14
31 Maryland 116.12
32 Florida State 115.98
33 California 115.51
34 Boston College 115.42
35 Indiana 115.14
36 Air Force 115.01
37 Michigan State 114.92
38 Kentucky 114.48
39 South Carolina 114.48
40 Alabama 114.05
41 Louisville 113.91
42 Colorado 113.55
43 C. Florida 113.43
44 Boise State 112.86
45 Connecticut 112.71
46 Wake Forest 112.71
47 Texas A&M 112.66
48 Georgia Tech 112.54
49 TCU 112.33
50 Washington State 112.28
51 Rutgers 112.16
52 Virginia 112.13
53 Purdue 112.09
54 Utah 111.87
55 Washington 111.78
56 Kansas State 111.58
57 Fresno State 111.04
58 Iowa 110.65
59 North Carolina 108.85
60 Southern Miss 108.83
61 Nebraska 108.42
62 Troy State 108.14
63 Mississippi State 107.43
64 NC State 107.23
65 Vanderbilt 107.18
66 Northwestern 107.17
67 C. Michigan 106.59
68 Navy 106.37
69 Miami 106.23
70 Mississippi 106.22
71 Stanford 106.05
72 Houston 105.83
73 East Carolina 105.36
74 Ball State 105.16
75 Tulsa 104.44
76 Notre Dame 103.94
77 Pittsburgh 103.70
78 Bowling Green 102.94
79 New Mexico 102.71
80 Nevada 102.71
81 Iowa State 102.50
82 Minnesota 101.67
83 Wyoming 101.50
84 Colorado State 101.50
85 W. Michigan 100.27
86 San Diego State 99.79
87 Florida Atlantic 99.10
88 UNLV 98.18
89 Duke 97.85
90 UTEP 97.61
91 Baylor 97.50
92 Marshall 97.12
93 Toledo 96.75
94 Buffalo 96.60
95 Middle Tenn 96.53
96 Syracuse 96.49
97 Arkansas State 96.16
98 Ohio 95.78
99 Kent State 95.10
100 Miami OH 94.35
101 Louisiana Tech 94.24
102 Tulane 93.95
103 NM State 93.86
104 La-Monroe 93.83
105 Memphis 93.60
106 San Jose State 93.59
107 Akron 93.42
108 E. Michigan 92.21
109 Rice 92.15
110 SMU 92.06
111 Army 92.02
112 Temple 91.77
113 Northern Illinois 91.23
114 La-Lafayette 87.83
115 Utah State 87.19
116 Idaho 86.69
117 North Texas 85.77
118 UAB 85.62
119 Florida Int'l 80.27
120 W. Kentucky 75.75

How to Gamble

I neither promote nor discourage gambling. However, many people ruin their lives doing it. Here is a formula you can follow to make sure you aren't one of them.
  1. Take a certain amount of money you won't miss.
  2. Pick some games using whatever method or service you prefer.
  3. Never, ever bet more than ten per cent on any single game. Ever.
  4. Never bet more than half your money on any particular day. Hold at least half for next time.
  5. When the money runs out, quit. Seek another profession.

It's that simple.

 

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