Tracking the Oddsmakers

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Tracking the Oddsmakers

How to Gamble

 

Football Predictions

A good indicator of a team's quality is how the opening odds rate them. You didn't know Vegas had
favorites? All you see in the odds are the expected margins of victory. How can you compare two teams
if they aren't playing this week and you have no odds to go by? That's easy. I've done it for you.

This chart aligns the teams according to how the odds makers set the margins of victory week by week.
Though there are problems - such as the wave created when, for example, a heavily-favored team loses -
most changes are slight. The ranking is very interesting as you can see which teams the odds makers favor.

Surprising, isn't it? Yet if you go to Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker, you will see that they are very accurate
year after year.

How can you argue?

NCAA Ranking

NFL
January 13, 2009

The first column indicates the imaginary rating that the oddsmakers
would give the teams based upon the point spread and considering
a simple three point home field advantage. The second column
indicates how much the rating increased or decreased from last week.
A 0.00 change probably means the team isn't playing this week or
the opening line was delayed, in which case you can figure out near
what it should be. The change does not indicate how a team played
last week but an average of how they and their next opponent played.

1 Dallas 76.36 0.00
2 Arizona 76.21 0.00
3 New Orleans 75.29 1.58
4 Minnesota 74.79 -1.57
5 Philadelphia 74.65 0.00
6 Indianapolis 74.34 -0.57
7 San Diego 74.27 0.00
8 New England 74.20 0.00
9 Houston 73.79 0.00
10 Green Bay 73.78 0.00
11 Tennessee 72.68 0.00
12 Cincinnati 72.17 0.00
13 Pittsburgh 72.15 0.00
14 Baltimore 71.41 0.00
15 San Francisco 71.11 0.00
16 Miami 70.88 0.00
17 Denver 70.74 0.00
18 Giants 70.59 0.00
19 Washington 70.36 0.00
20 Jets 70.34 0.57
21 Atlanta 69.89 0.00
22 Chicago 67.75 0.00
23 Carolina 66.56 0.00
24 Jacksonville 66.13 0.00
25 Cleveland 64.63 0.00
26 Seattle 64.18 0.00
27 Buffalo 64.14 0.00
28 Tampa Bay 63.89 0.00
29 Detroit 61.34 0.00
30 Oakland 61.10 0.00
31 Kansas City 60.74 0.00
32 Saint Louis 60.11 0.00

NCAA
15 December 2009

The first column indicates the imaginary rating that the oddsmakers
would give the teams based upon the point spread and considering
a simple three point home field advantage. The second column
indicates how much the rating increased or decreased from last week.
A 0.00 change probably means the team isn't playing this week or
the opening line was delayed, in which case you can figure out near
what it should be. The change does not indicate how a team played
last week but an average of how they and their next opponent played.

I'll tell you what I'm thinking. They've had Texas well ahead of Alabama
all season. Suddenly, there's a seven-point shift. My analysis is that
Vegas is planning to make a killing off all the Alabama hype.

1 Alabama 134.56 7.22
2 Florida 132.59 -2.75
3 Texas 130.56 -7.22
4 TCU 126.87 -1.11
5 Oregon 125.91 2.75
6 Oklahoma 125.73 0.86
7 Ohio State 123.91 -2.74
8 Texas Tech 122.94 0.35
9 Boise State 122.87 1.11
10 Penn State 122.63 1.34
11 Cincinnati 122.09 2.76
12 Mississippi 120.93 0.72
13 Georgia Tech 120.77 -0.74
14 Virginia Tech 120.59 0.54
15 LSU 119.63 -1.33
16 USC 118.96 -2.20
17 Stanford 118.73 -0.85
18 Miami 118.47 1.27
19 Oklahoma State 118.43 -0.71
20 Arkansas 118.15 0.19
21 Clemson 118.07 0.56
22 Oregon State 118.07 -0.09
23 Arizona 117.72 1.56
24 Nebraska 117.72 -1.56
25 Iowa 117.27 0.75
26 Tennessee 116.59 -0.54
27 South Carolina 116.37 0.36
28 Pittsburgh 116.20 -1.13
29 BYU 115.57 0.10
30 Missouri 115.52 -1.27
31 Georgia 115.49 1.99
32 Nevada 115.02 0.31
33 Houston 114.83 2.50
34 Florida State 114.82 -0.61
35 Michigan State 114.44 -0.35
36 North Carolina 114.20 1.13
37 California 114.13 -0.66
38 West Virginia 113.82 0.61
39 Connecticut 113.37 -0.36
40 Notre Dame 112.58 0.00
41 Kansas State 112.26 0.00
42 Auburn 112.18 -1.06
43 C. Michigan 112.09 -0.63
44 Purdue 112.04 0.00
45 Wisconsin 111.97 -1.26
46 Boston College 111.96 2.21
47 Utah 111.63 0.66
48 Wake Forest 111.58 0.00
49 UCLA 111.53 -0.07
50 Texas A&M 111.49 -1.99
51 Michigan 110.65 0.00
52 Tulsa 110.61 0.00
53 Kentucky 110.57 -0.56
54 Mississippi State 110.21 0.00
55 Rutgers 110.20 -0.01
56 South Florida 109.73 0.50
57 Navy 109.52 1.27
58 Kansas 109.29 0.00
59 Southern Miss 109.27 0.80
60 Arizona State 109.22 0.00
61 Fresno State 108.71 1.52
62 Colorado 108.57 0.00
63 East Carolina 108.15 -0.18
64 Air Force 107.83 -2.50
65 Northwestern 107.68 1.07
66 Troy State 107.59 0.64
67 Minnesota 107.54 1.02
68 Temple 107.53 0.08
69 Illinois 107.19 0.00
70 Indiana 106.54 0.00
71 C. Florida 106.20 0.01
72 NC State 106.07 0.00
73 Iowa State 106.04 -1.02
74 Washington 105.79 0.00
75 Northern Illinois 105.23 -0.49
76 Ohio 104.79 4.34
77 Duke 104.58 0.00
78 Baylor 104.09 0.00
79 Virginia 104.05 0.00
80 Middle Tenn 103.27 -0.79
81 Vanderbilt 102.98 0.00
82 SMU 102.02 -0.31
83 Louisiana Tech 101.91 0.00
84 Louisville 101.14 0.00
85 Marshall 100.79 -4.34
86 Bowling Green 100.54 -2.45
87 Maryland 100.25 0.00
88 UAB 100.19 0.00
89 Idaho 99.54 2.45
90 Buffalo 99.41 0.00
91 UTEP 99.13 0.00
92 W. Michigan 98.46 0.00
93 Toledo 97.49 0.00
94 Hawaii 97.23 0.00
95 Utah State 97.09 0.00
96 La-Monroe 97.06 0.00
97 Syracuse 96.76 0.00
98 San Diego State 96.60 0.00
99 UNLV 96.60 0.00
100 Arkansas State 96.54 0.00
101 Wyoming 95.71 -1.52
102 Memphis 95.61 0.00
103 Florida Atlantic 95.30 0.00
104 Colorado State 95.23 0.00
105 Kent State 94.91 0.00
106 Army 94.75 0.00
107 Florida Int'l 94.30 0.00
108 Akron 93.99 0.00
109 La-Lafayette 93.95 0.00
110 North Texas 92.52 0.00
111 Miami OH 92.50 0.00
112 Rice 91.68 0.00
113 Ball State 90.96 0.00
114 New Mexico 88.98 0.00
115 San Jose State 88.91 0.00
116 Tulane 87.83 0.00
117 Washington State 84.81 0.00
118 W. Kentucky 83.54 0.00
119 E. Michigan 82.49 0.00
120 NM State 80.76 0.00

How to Gamble

I neither promote nor discourage gambling. However, many people ruin their lives doing it. Here is a formula you can follow to make sure you aren't one of them.
  1. Take a certain amount of money you won't miss.
  2. Pick some games using whatever method or service you prefer.
  3. Never, ever bet more than ten per cent on any single game. Ever.
  4. Never bet more than half your money on any particular day. Hold at least half for next time.
  5. When the money runs out, quit. Seek another profession.

It's that simple.

 

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