Copyright 1998-2012 Nutshellsports.com
Nutshell Sports NCAA Football Ratings
FINAL
2012
Welcome to
my fantasy.
Since high school in the 1970's I have searched
for a way to rate teams according to their history in the season.
I have developed many systems ranging from reward and penalty types to types in
which each game affected every other game. I have done way too much experimentation yet
have won numerous awards with several systems over the years on Todd
Beck's site. In fact, I did so well during one stretch, holding back from
changing too much, that I actually got to be on my own Superlist that David Wilson
maintains.
I used to track the lines and rate the teams according
to how the line changed from week to week. And I noticed something interesting.
Just because a good team lost wasn't necessarily a reason for
them to change a team's rating. That got my gears turning.
A few years later I designed this system using that theory. It is
based on head to head competition. There is no exaggerated margin of victory factor
and there is no schedule strength. They are natural in this
system.
I've decided that accuracy and consistency
are more important than winning contests. Therefore I will leave this system unchanged and if
I want to experiment I will do it with another
system.
This system
uses four basic concepts:
-
Which team
won and which team lost is the biggest factor
-
A lesser
factor is the margin of victory which is very limited but
necessary
-
The Oregon Factor - just because you score a
lot against bad teams, don't think you're going to run the field against
good ones
-
The Notre
Dame factor - just because you won every game during the season, don't
assume your close games somehow indicate you can put lots of points on
the board if you need to
The last
factor is the one I added after the bowls. That is why it is different
from Kenneth Massey's version of my ratings. You can compare these to the
ones posted there to see what a difference it
makes.
| 1 |
Alabama |
97.50 |
| 2 |
Texas A&M |
97.00 |
| 3 |
Oregon |
90.00 |
| 4 |
Stanford |
90.00 |
| 5 |
Georgia |
89.50 |
| 6 |
Ohio State |
88.50 |
| 7 |
Clemson |
86.50 |
| 8 |
LSU |
86.50 |
| 9 |
Notre Dame |
84.50 |
| 10 |
Kansas State |
84.50 |
| 11 |
Oklahoma State |
84.00 |
| 12 |
Florida |
84.00 |
| 13 |
Florida State |
83.50 |
| 14 |
Wisconsin |
83.50 |
| 15 |
San Jose State |
83.50 |
| 16 |
Oklahoma |
83.00 |
| 17 |
Northwestern |
83.00 |
| 18 |
Michigan |
82.50 |
| 19 |
Michigan State |
81.50 |
| 20 |
UCLA |
81.50 |
| 21 |
South Carolina |
81.00 |
| 22 |
Utah State |
81.00 |
| 23 |
Miami |
81.00 |
| 24 |
Pittsburgh |
81.00 |
| 25 |
Northern Illinois |
81.00 |
| 26 |
San Diego State |
81.00 |
| 27 |
Baylor |
80.50 |
| 28 |
BYU |
80.50 |
| 29 |
Georgia Tech |
80.50 |
| 30 |
Arkansas State |
79.50 |
| 31 |
Kent State |
79.50 |
| 32 |
Texas |
78.50 |
| 33 |
Vanderbilt |
77.50 |
| 34 |
Nebraska |
77.50 |
| 35 |
Tulsa |
77.00 |
| 36 |
TCU |
76.50 |
| 37 |
Cincinnati |
76.50 |
| 38 |
Oregon State |
76.50 |
| 39 |
USC |
76.50 |
| 40 |
Syracuse |
76.00 |
| 41 |
Arizona State |
76.00 |
| 42 |
Bowling Green |
76.00 |
| 43 |
Mississippi |
75.50 |
| 44 |
Penn State |
75.50 |
| 45 |
North Carolina |
75.50 |
| 46 |
Utah |
75.00 |
| 47 |
Mississippi State |
74.50 |
| 48 |
Louisville |
74.00 |
| 49 |
C. Florida |
74.00 |
| 50 |
Boise State |
73.00 |
| 51 |
Louisiana Tech |
72.50 |
| 52 |
West Virginia |
72.50 |
| 53 |
Rutgers |
72.50 |
| 54 |
Ball State |
72.50 |
| 55 |
Rice |
72.00 |
| 56 |
Fresno State |
72.00 |
| 57 |
Arizona |
72.00 |
| 58 |
Missouri |
71.50 |
| 59 |
La-Lafayette |
70.50 |
| 60 |
Virginia Tech |
70.50 |
| 61 |
Middle Tenn |
70.50 |
| 62 |
Navy |
70.00 |
| 63 |
Troy State |
69.00 |
| 64 |
NC State |
69.00 |
| 65 |
Iowa State |
69.00 |
| 66 |
Washington |
69.00 |
| 67 |
Minnesota |
68.50 |
| 68 |
SMU |
67.50 |
| 69 |
Duke |
67.50 |
| 70 |
Virginia |
67.50 |
| 71 |
Toledo |
67.50 |
| 72 |
Buffalo |
67.00 |
| 73 |
Connecticut |
67.00 |
| 74 |
Washington State |
67.00 |
| 75 |
East Carolina |
66.50 |
| 76 |
Arkansas |
66.00 |
| 77 |
Auburn |
66.00 |
| 78 |
Texas Tech |
65.50 |
| 79 |
Tennessee |
65.50 |
| 80 |
C. Michigan |
65.00 |
| 81 |
Texas State |
64.50 |
| 82 |
Florida Atlantic |
64.50 |
| 83 |
Purdue |
64.50 |
| 84 |
Florida Int'l |
64.00 |
| 85 |
Wyoming |
64.00 |
| 86 |
W. Kentucky |
64.00 |
| 87 |
Air Force |
64.00 |
| 88 |
California |
64.00 |
| 89 |
Nevada |
63.00 |
| 90 |
Iowa |
63.00 |
| 91 |
W. Michigan |
63.00 |
| 92 |
Memphis |
62.50 |
| 93 |
Ohio |
62.50 |
| 94 |
La-Monroe |
61.50 |
| 95 |
UNLV |
61.50 |
| 96 |
Boston College |
60.50 |
| 97 |
Indiana |
60.50 |
| 98 |
Army |
59.50 |
| 99 |
North Texas |
59.50 |
| 100 |
UTEP |
59.00 |
| 101 |
Colorado State |
59.00 |
| 102 |
Miami OH |
59.00 |
| 103 |
Illinois |
58.50 |
| 104 |
South Alabama |
58.50 |
| 105 |
Houston |
58.00 |
| 106 |
E. Michigan |
58.00 |
| 107 |
Marshall |
58.00 |
| 108 |
Wake Forest |
57.50 |
| 109 |
Idaho |
57.50 |
| 110 |
South Florida |
57.00 |
| 111 |
UAB |
56.50 |
| 112 |
Maryland |
56.00 |
| 113 |
Tulane |
56.00 |
| 114 |
New Mexico |
55.50 |
| 115 |
Kentucky |
55.50 |
| 116 |
Colorado |
55.00 |
| 117 |
Massachusetts |
55.00 |
| 118 |
Kansas |
54.00 |
| 119 |
Temple |
53.50 |
| 120 |
Texas-SA |
52.50 |
| 121 |
Southern Miss |
52.50 |
| 122 |
Akron |
50.50 |
| 123 |
Hawaii |
48.00 |
| 124 |
NM State |
45.00 |
|