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Nutshell Sports NCAA Football Ratings
FINAL 2013
Welcome to my fantasy.

Since high school in the 1970's I have searched for a way to rate teams according to their history in the season. I have developed many systems ranging from reward and penalty types to types in which each game affected every other game. I have done way too much experimentation yet have won numerous awards with several systems over the years on Todd Beck's site. In fact, I did so well during one stretch, holding back from changing too much, that I actually got to be on my own Superlist that David Wilson maintains.

I used to track the lines and rate the teams according to how the line changed from week to week. And I noticed something interesting. Just because a good team lost wasn't necessarily a reason for them to change a team's rating. That got my gears turning. A few years later I designed this system using that theory. It is based on head to head competition. There is no exaggerated margin of victory factor and there is no schedule strength. They are natural in this system.

I've decided that accuracy and consistency are more important than winning contests. Therefore I will leave this system unchanged and if I want to experiment I will do it with another system.

This system uses four basic concepts:

  1. Which team won and which team lost is the biggest factor
  2. A lesser factor is the margin of victory which is very limited but necessary
  3. The Oregon Factor - just because you score a lot against bad teams, don't think you're going to run the field against good ones
  4. The Notre Dame factor - just because you won every game during the season, don't assume your close games somehow indicate you can put lots of points on the board if you need to.
Final 2013

1 Florida State 93.00
2 Alabama 92.00
3 Auburn 90.00
4 Arizona State 89.50
5 LSU 87.50
6 Oklahoma State 87.00
7 Baylor 86.50
8 Clemson 86.50
9 Georgia 86.50
10 Michigan State 85.50
11 Mississippi State 84.50
12 Missouri 84.50
13 Oregon 84.50
14 South Carolina 84.00
15 Oklahoma 84.00
16 Wisconsin 84.00
17 Stanford 83.50
18 Houston 83.50
19 Mississippi 81.00
20 Ohio State 80.50
21 Bowling Green 80.50
22 Cincinnati 80.00
23 Oregon State 79.50
24 Washington 79.00
25 UCLA 78.50
26 USC 78.50
27 Louisville 78.00
28 Minnesota 78.00
29 Colorado State 77.50
30 UNLV 77.00
31 Nebraska 76.50
32 Iowa 76.50
33 Utah State 76.50
34 North Carolina 75.50
35 Fresno State 75.50
36 Kansas State 75.00
37 Texas A&M 75.00
38 Arkansas 74.50
39 Notre Dame 74.50
40 Texas 74.50
41 Utah 74.00
42 Penn State 73.50
43 C. Florida 73.50
44 Georgia Tech 73.50
45 Boise State 73.50
46 Washington State 73.00
47 Duke 73.00
48 Michigan 73.00
49 Tulane 73.00
50 North Texas 72.00
51 Navy 72.00
52 Texas-SA 72.00
53 BYU 72.00
54 Florida 72.00
55 Northern Illinois 71.50
56 Memphis 71.50
57 Temple 71.00
58 Rice 71.00
59 Texas Tech 71.00
60 Arizona 71.00
61 Virginia Tech 71.00
62 East Carolina 70.50
63 Boston College 70.50
64 TCU 70.00
65 San Diego State 70.00
66 Maryland 70.00
67 Buffalo 70.00
68 Vanderbilt 69.50
69 Northwestern 69.00
70 West Virginia 68.50
71 South Alabama 68.00
72 Tennessee 68.00
73 Ball State 68.00
74 South Florida 68.00
75 Syracuse 67.50
76 Connecticut 67.50
77 Pittsburgh 67.00
78 Miami 67.00
79 Indiana 67.00
80 Wake Forest 66.50
81 Marshall 66.50
82 Toledo 66.50
83 San Jose State 66.00
84 SMU 66.00
85 W. Kentucky 66.00
86 Arkansas State 65.50
87 Florida Atlantic 65.50
88 Middle Tenn 65.50
89 Illinois 65.00
90 Kansas 64.50
91 Rutgers 64.00
92 La-Monroe 63.50
93 Troy State 62.50
94 NC State 62.50
95 La-Lafayette 61.00
96 Kentucky 61.00
97 Iowa State 60.50
98 Colorado 60.50
99 Kent State 60.00
100 Nevada 59.50
101 California 59.50
102 Akron 58.50
103 New Mexico 58.50
104 Hawaii 58.00
105 Air Force 58.00
106 Virginia 57.50
107 Purdue 56.50
108 Massachusetts 56.00
109 Tulsa 56.00
110 C. Michigan 55.50
111 Wyoming 55.00
112 UAB 55.00
113 W. Michigan 53.00
114 Army 52.50
115 Idaho 52.50
116 Southern Miss 51.50
117 Georgia State 51.50
118 Louisiana Tech 51.00
119 NM State 50.50
120 Miami OH 50.50
121 Texas State 50.00
122 E. Michigan 50.00
123 Ohio 48.50
124 UTEP 47.50
125 Florida Int'l 43.00


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