Nutshell Sports and The Girl
Other Ratings
Copyright 1996-2018
 

I used to track the lines and rate the teams according to how the line changed from week to week. And I noticed something interesting. Just because a good team lost wasn't necessarily a reason for them to change a team's rating. That got my gears turning. A few years later I designed this system using that theory. It is based on head to head competition. There is no exaggerated margin of victory factor and there is no schedule strength. They are natural in this system.

The actual rating is the top end of their expected ability. It is in general about twice the margin of the line. Therefore the expected range of the final outcome is 50-100% of the posted margin.

NCAA Football
1 December 2018

rankteammed
1Alabama112.00
2Clemson100.00
3Oklahoma95.00
4Georgia95.00
5LSU94.00
6Notre Dame93.50
7Ohio State92.50
8C. Florida92.00
9Michigan91.00
10Mississippi State91.00
11Iowa State90.50
12West Virginia89.50
13Washington87.00
14Auburn87.00
15Texas86.50
16Texas A&M86.50
17Oklahoma State86.00
18Penn State84.50
19NC State84.00
20Stanford83.50
21Northwestern83.50
22Iowa83.00
23Purdue83.00
24Utah82.50
25Kansas State82.00
26Michigan State82.00
27Pittsburgh82.00
28Missouri81.50
29Kentucky81.50
30Washington State81.00
31Texas Tech81.00
32Syracuse81.00
33Maryland81.00
34TCU80.50
35Florida80.00
36Boston College80.00
37Oregon78.50
38Boise State78.00
39Indiana78.00
40Duke77.50
41South Carolina77.50
42Baylor77.00
43Wisconsin76.50
44Miami76.00
45Temple76.00
46Fresno State76.00
47Minnesota76.00
48App State76.00
49Georgia Tech75.50
50Arizona State75.00
51Virginia75.00
52Army75.00
53Cincinnati74.50
54Vanderbilt74.00
55Utah State74.00
56Nebraska74.00
57Virginia Tech74.00
58Wake Forest73.50
59Florida State73.00
60Mississippi72.50
61USC72.00
62Kansas71.50
63California71.50
64UCLA71.00
65Memphis71.00
66Troy State70.00
67Northern Illinois69.50
68Arizona69.00
69BYU69.00
70San Diego State69.00
71Buffalo69.00
72Houston68.50
73Ohio68.00
74South Florida68.00
75Miami OH68.00
76Colorado67.00
77E. Michigan66.50
78Ga Southern66.50
79Wyoming65.50
80UAB65.50
81Middle Tenn65.00
82Arkansas State65.00
83North Carolina65.00
84SMU64.50
85Toledo64.00
86Tulane64.00
87La-Lafayette64.00
88Navy64.00
89Tennessee63.00
90North Texas63.00
91Florida Atlantic63.00
92Marshall62.00
93Louisville62.00
94Florida Int'l62.00
95Air Force61.50
96Nevada61.50
97Tulsa61.00
98Illinois60.00
99Louisiana Tech59.50
100Arkansas58.50
101Southern Miss58.50
102Hawaii58.00
103La-Monroe58.00
104W. Michigan57.00
105Akron56.00
106Coastal Carolina56.00
107Rutgers56.00
108East Carolina55.00
109Oregon State53.00
110Liberty51.00
111Colorado State50.50
112New Mexico50.00
113Bowling Green50.00
114South Alabama50.00
115Texas-SA50.00
116San Jose State50.00
117Georgia State49.50
118UNLV49.00
119Ball State48.50
120C. Michigan47.50
121Massachusetts47.50
122Texas State47.50
123W. Kentucky46.50
124Connecticut46.50
125Charlotte43.00
126NM State43.00
127Old Dominion40.50
128Kent State40.00
129Rice38.00
130UTEP35.50