Nutshell Sports and The Girl
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Nutshell Sports NCAA Football Ratings
FINAL  2012
Welcome to my fantasy.

Since high school in the 1970's I have searched for a way to rate teams according to their history in the season. I have developed many systems ranging from reward and penalty types to types in which each game affected every other game. I have done way too much experimentation yet have won numerous awards with several systems over the years on Todd Beck's site. In fact, I did so well during one stretch, holding back from changing too much, that I actually got to be on my own Superlist that David Wilson maintains.

I used to track the lines and rate the teams according to how the line changed from week to week. And I noticed something interesting. Just because a good team lost wasn't necessarily a reason for them to change a team's rating. That got my gears turning. A few years later I designed this system using that theory. It is based on head to head competition. There is no exaggerated margin of victory factor and there is no schedule strength. They are natural in this system.

I've decided that accuracy and consistency are more important than winning contests. Therefore I will leave this system unchanged and if I want to experiment I will do it with another system.

This system uses four basic concepts:

  1. Which team won and which team lost is the biggest factor
  2. A lesser factor is the margin of victory which is very limited but necessary
  3. The Oregon Factor - just because you score a lot against bad teams, don't think you're going to run the field against good ones
  4. The Notre Dame factor - just because you won every game during the season, don't assume your close games somehow indicate you can put lots of points on the board if you need to

The last factor is the one I added after the bowls. That is why it is different from Kenneth Massey's version of my ratings. You can compare these to the ones posted there to see what a difference it makes.
      
1 Alabama 97.50
2 Texas A&M 97.00
3 Oregon 90.00
4 Stanford 90.00
5 Georgia 89.50
6 Ohio State 88.50
7 Clemson 86.50
8 LSU 86.50
9 Notre Dame 84.50
10 Kansas State 84.50
11 Oklahoma State 84.00
12 Florida 84.00
13 Florida State 83.50
14 Wisconsin 83.50
15 San Jose State 83.50
16 Oklahoma 83.00
17 Northwestern 83.00
18 Michigan 82.50
19 Michigan State 81.50
20 UCLA 81.50
21 South Carolina 81.00
22 Utah State 81.00
23 Miami 81.00
24 Pittsburgh 81.00
25 Northern Illinois 81.00
26 San Diego State 81.00
27 Baylor 80.50
28 BYU 80.50
29 Georgia Tech 80.50
30 Arkansas State 79.50
31 Kent State 79.50
32 Texas 78.50
33 Vanderbilt 77.50
34 Nebraska 77.50
35 Tulsa 77.00
36 TCU 76.50
37 Cincinnati 76.50
38 Oregon State 76.50
39 USC 76.50
40 Syracuse 76.00
41 Arizona State 76.00
42 Bowling Green 76.00
43 Mississippi 75.50
44 Penn State 75.50
45 North Carolina 75.50
46 Utah 75.00
47 Mississippi State 74.50
48 Louisville 74.00
49 C. Florida 74.00
50 Boise State 73.00
51 Louisiana Tech 72.50
52 West Virginia 72.50
53 Rutgers 72.50
54 Ball State 72.50
55 Rice 72.00
56 Fresno State 72.00
57 Arizona 72.00
58 Missouri 71.50
59 La-Lafayette 70.50
60 Virginia Tech 70.50
61 Middle Tenn 70.50
62 Navy 70.00
63 Troy State 69.00
64 NC State 69.00
65 Iowa State 69.00
66 Washington 69.00
67 Minnesota 68.50
68 SMU 67.50
69 Duke 67.50
70 Virginia 67.50
71 Toledo 67.50
72 Buffalo 67.00
73 Connecticut 67.00
74 Washington State 67.00
75 East Carolina 66.50
76 Arkansas 66.00
77 Auburn 66.00
78 Texas Tech 65.50
79 Tennessee 65.50
80 C. Michigan 65.00
81 Texas State 64.50
82 Florida Atlantic 64.50
83 Purdue 64.50
84 Florida Int'l 64.00
85 Wyoming 64.00
86 W. Kentucky 64.00
87 Air Force 64.00
88 California 64.00
89 Nevada 63.00
90 Iowa 63.00
91 W. Michigan 63.00
92 Memphis 62.50
93 Ohio 62.50
94 La-Monroe 61.50
95 UNLV 61.50
96 Boston College 60.50
97 Indiana 60.50
98 Army 59.50
99 North Texas 59.50
100 UTEP 59.00
101 Colorado State 59.00
102 Miami OH 59.00
103 Illinois 58.50
104 South Alabama 58.50
105 Houston 58.00
106 E. Michigan 58.00
107 Marshall 58.00
108 Wake Forest 57.50
109 Idaho 57.50
110 South Florida 57.00
111 UAB 56.50
112 Maryland 56.00
113 Tulane 56.00
114 New Mexico 55.50
115 Kentucky 55.50
116 Colorado 55.00
117 Massachusetts 55.00
118 Kansas 54.00
119 Temple 53.50
120 Texas-SA 52.50
121 Southern Miss 52.50
122 Akron 50.50
123 Hawaii 48.00
124 NM State 45.00


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