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Nutshell Sports NCAA Football Ratings
Pre-season 2014
Welcome to my fantasy.

Since high school in the 1970's I have searched for a way to rate teams according to their history in the season. I have developed many systems ranging from reward and penalty types to types in which each game affected every other game. I have done way too much experimentation yet have won numerous awards with several systems over the years on Todd Beck's site. In fact, I did so well during one stretch, holding back from changing too much, that I actually got to be on my own Superlist that David Wilson maintains.

I used to track the lines and rate the teams according to how the line changed from week to week. And I noticed something interesting. Just because a good team lost wasn't necessarily a reason for them to change a team's rating. That got my gears turning. A few years later I designed this system using that theory. It is based on head to head competition. There is no exaggerated margin of victory factor and there is no schedule strength. They are natural in this system.

I've decided that accuracy and consistency are more important than winning contests. Therefore I will leave this system unchanged and if I want to experiment I will do it with another system.

This system uses four basic concepts:

  1. Which team won and which team lost is the biggest factor
  2. A lesser factor is the margin of victory which is very limited but necessary
  3. The Oregon Factor - just because you score a lot against bad teams, don't think you're going to run the field against good ones
  4. The Notre Dame factor - just because you won every game during the season, don't assume your close games somehow indicate you can put lots of points on the board if you need to.
24 August 2014

1 Florida State 93.00
2 Baylor 92.50
3 Alabama 92.00
4 Auburn 91.50
5 Houston 90.50
6 Arizona State 89.50
7 LSU 87.50
8 Oklahoma State 87.00
9 Clemson 86.50
10 Georgia 86.50
11 Stanford 86.50
12 Michigan State 85.50
13 Mississippi State 84.50
14 South Carolina 84.00
15 Oklahoma 84.00
16 Wisconsin 84.00
17 Bowling Green 84.00
18 Missouri 83.00
19 Oregon 82.50
20 UNLV 82.00
21 Ohio State 80.00
22 Cincinnati 80.00
23 Oregon State 79.50
24 Colorado State 79.50
25 Minnesota 79.00
26 UCLA 78.50
27 Washington 78.00
28 Louisville 78.00
29 Mississippi 77.50
30 USC 77.50
31 Georgia Tech 77.00
32 Iowa 76.50
33 Utah State 76.50
34 Notre Dame 76.50
35 Michigan 76.50
36 Fresno State 76.00
37 Texas A&M 76.00
38 Florida 76.00
39 Rice 76.00
40 Nebraska 75.50
41 Kansas State 75.00
42 North Carolina 74.50
43 Arkansas 74.50
44 Texas 74.50
45 Maryland 74.50
46 Utah 74.00
47 Penn State 73.50
48 Boise State 73.50
49 Florida Atlantic 73.50
50 Washington State 73.00
51 Tulane 73.00
52 Texas-SA 73.00
53 Duke 72.00
54 North Texas 72.00
55 BYU 72.00
56 Miami 72.00
57 C. Florida 71.50
58 Memphis 71.50
59 Virginia Tech 71.00
60 Northwestern 71.00
61 Northern Illinois 70.50
62 East Carolina 70.50
63 Boston College 70.50
64 South Florida 70.50
65 Navy 70.00
66 Temple 70.00
67 TCU 70.00
68 Buffalo 70.00
69 Ball State 69.50
70 Vanderbilt 68.50
71 West Virginia 68.50
72 South Alabama 68.00
73 Tennessee 68.00
74 Syracuse 67.50
75 Indiana 67.00
76 Connecticut 66.50
77 Wake Forest 66.50
78 Toledo 66.50
79 Arizona 66.00
80 San Jose State 66.00
81 W. Kentucky 66.00
82 Arkansas State 65.50
83 Middle Tenn 65.50
84 Kansas 64.50
85 Troy State 64.50
86 NC State 64.50
87 SMU 64.00
88 Rutgers 64.00
89 Illinois 63.00
90 La-Monroe 62.50
91 Texas Tech 62.00
92 Pittsburgh 62.00
93 Marshall 61.50
94 Kentucky 61.00
95 Iowa State 60.50
96 Colorado 60.50
97 San Diego State 60.00
98 Kent State 60.00
99 Nevada 59.50
100 California 58.50
101 New Mexico 58.50
102 Akron 58.00
103 Hawaii 58.00
104 Air Force 58.00
105 Georgia State 57.50
106 La-Lafayette 57.00
107 UAB 57.00
108 Virginia 56.50
109 Purdue 56.50
110 Massachusetts 56.00
111 Tulsa 56.00
112 C. Michigan 55.50
113 Wyoming 55.00
114 Idaho 54.50
115 W. Michigan 53.00
116 Army 52.50
117 Miami OH 52.50
118 E. Michigan 52.00
119 Southern Miss 51.50
120 Louisiana Tech 51.00
121 NM State 48.50
122 Ohio 48.50
123 Texas State 46.00
124 UTEP 45.00
125 Florida Int'l 43.00


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