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Nutshell Sports NCAA Football Ratings
NCAA Football 1872-1886 so far.
note: I will gradually add all seasons. Enjoy the suspense.
Once I finish NCAA Football I will start working on NFL.
I will concentrate on only these two sports until I
complete their histories.
Current Odds
The teams are arranged by their predictive ratings.
All ratings only include games played by teams in the top level.
On Todd's page I am listed as: NSP (formerly NSR)
Something eerie is going on. In 15 of 34 bowls the line
is within two points of my ratings. With games that close I don't know
what's going to happen. After the first two games I'm 2-0 but who knows
how it's going to come out. In fact, the median game was only 2.265 points
different from my prediction and the average is less than four. This
season's bowls will be a real challenge.
Update: I still beat 50%.
For more weird things, check the NFL Ratings page.
Ratings
Updated 01/10/2010
I have added a major factor to all my ratings. The bowls will
still reflect the old setup but the final ratings for college,
the NFL playoffs, and the rest of the NBA season will use the
improved algorithm.
1 Alabama 135.95
2 Texas 134.21
3 TCU 132.29
4 Florida 132.14
5 Oklahoma 129.62
6 Ohio State 129.57
7 Texas Tech 127.47
8 Arkansas 127.46
9 Virginia Tech 127.45
10 Stanford 127.17
11 Oregon 126.34
12 Nebraska 126.34
13 Boise State 125.90
14 LSU 123.96
15 BYU 123.50
16 Penn State 123.47
17 Mississippi 123.06
18 Georgia Tech 122.35
19 Pittsburgh 120.52
20 Georgia 120.45
21 Oregon State 120.36
22 Air Force 120.22
23 Mississippi State 119.88
24 Wisconsin 119.87
25 Oklahoma State 119.36
26 Iowa 119.21
27 Cincinnati 119.08
28 Clemson 118.97
29 USC 117.91
30 Miami 117.69
31 Connecticut 117.48
32 North Carolina 117.00
33 Arizona 116.87
34 Tennessee 116.27
35 Washington 116.13
36 Utah 116.11
37 Auburn 114.88
38 Rutgers 114.68
39 West Virginia 114.32
40 East Carolina 114.21
41 Notre Dame 114.15
42 Kentucky 113.87
43 Michigan State 113.38
44 Texas A&M 113.29
45 South Carolina 113.28
46 Boston College 113.06
47 C. Michigan 113.03
48 Florida State 112.38
49 Nevada 112.11
50 Houston 112.03
51 Kansas State 111.20
52 UCLA 111.04
53 Navy 110.75
54 Indiana 110.34
55 Arizona State 110.05
56 Minnesota 109.67
57 California 109.55
58 Middle Tenn 109.39
59 Colorado 108.95
60 Wake Forest 108.89
61 Louisiana Tech 108.58
62 Iowa State 108.55
63 South Florida 108.42
64 C. Florida 108.41
65 Missouri 107.97
66 Purdue 107.81
67 Northwestern 107.25
68 SMU 107.17
69 Southern Miss 106.64
70 Kansas 106.15
71 Troy State 106.04
72 Illinois 105.38
73 Temple 104.57
74 Baylor 104.01
75 Michigan 103.65
76 Vanderbilt 103.35
77 Ohio 103.26
78 Syracuse 102.98
79 Maryland 102.77
80 Duke 102.71
81 NC State 102.15
82 Fresno State 101.41
83 Virginia 100.80
84 Louisville 100.60
85 Idaho 99.62
86 UTEP 98.47
87 Wyoming 98.18
88 Marshall 98.08
89 Northern Illinois 98.00
90 Tulsa 97.25
91 Bowling Green 97.24
92 Buffalo 97.22
93 Utah State 96.51
94 UAB 95.15
95 UNLV 94.16
96 San Diego State 94.14
97 Kent State 93.70
98 W. Michigan 92.87
99 Florida Atlantic 92.09
100 Hawaii 90.99
101 La-Monroe 90.56
102 Army 90.43
103 Toledo 89.97
104 New Mexico 89.49
105 Miami OH 88.84
106 La-Lafayette 88.64
107 Ball State 88.57
108 Memphis 88.30
109 Arkansas State 88.09
110 Colorado State 87.91
111 North Texas 85.97
112 Florida Int'l 85.86
113 Akron 84.20
114 Washington State 83.71
115 W. Kentucky 83.47
116 Tulane 83.09
117 San Jose State 78.20
118 NM State 78.10
119 Rice 76.60
120 E. Michigan 76.38
Bowl Report Card
This will be updated later.
Which teams have played the best bowl games? Here is how I award the teams by
their season ratings and how much better or worse they played than expected.
Basketball has its final 64. This will be football's 68.
So far, this year's champion is BYU. Let's just say that teams with a rating
lower than C- should not have been in a bowl. And the F's? Flops. Some teams
should really not have been in bowls - for example, SMU. But the way they
played certainly redeemed them.
1 Florida A+
2 Alabama A+
3 Nebraska A
4 Ohio State B+
5 BYU B+
6 Boise State B+
7 Virginia Tech B+
8 Mississippi B+
9 Oklahoma B
10 Georgia B
11 USC B-
12 Iowa B-
13 TCU B-
14 Texas B-
15 Utah B-
16 Stanford B-
17 Air Force B-
18 Navy B-
19 Oregon B-
20 Texas Tech B-
21 Penn State B-
22 LSU C+
23 SMU C+
24 Florida State C+
25 Connecticut C
26 Clemson C
27 Rutgers C
28 Pittsburgh C
29 South Florida C
30 Wisconsin C
31 Oklahoma State C-
32 Arkansas C-
33 Georgia Tech C-
34 Cincinnati C-
35 North Carolina C-
36 Boston College C-
37 California C-
38 Michigan State C-
39 East Carolina C-
40 Kentucky D+
41 Miami D+
42 Middle Tenn D+
43 Auburn D+
44 UCLA D+
45 C. Michigan D
46 West Virginia D
47 Oregon State D
48 Tennessee D
49 Northwestern D
50 South Carolina D-
51 Troy State D-
52 Iowa State D-
53 Minnesota D-
54 Arizona D-
55 Wyoming D-
56 Texas A&M D-
57 Missouri F
58 Marshall F
59 Temple F
60 Southern Miss F
61 Ohio F
62 C. Florida F
63 Idaho F
64 Houston F
65 Fresno State F
66 Bowling Green F
67 Northern Illinois F
68 Nevada F
***
We have NFL memorabilia and collectables.
***
Better or Worse?
Did your team get better this season? Or worse?
This chart shows the increase or decrease in your
team's rating. Here's your future.
Washington 25.39
Indiana 23.53
Idaho 20.62
Mississippi State 19.76
Arkansas 16.97
SMU 16.86
Middle Tenn 15.70
Iowa State 13.68
Air Force 13.55
C. Michigan 13.21
Texas A&M 13.02
Stanford 11.51
C. Florida 11.46
Minnesota 11.44
North Texas 10.65
Virginia Tech 10.48
Louisiana Tech 9.46
BYU 9.42
Kansas State 9.18
Ohio 8.82
Tulane 8.82
Fresno State 8.36
Auburn 8.18
Miami 7.67
Nebraska 7.64
Wisconsin 7.45
East Carolina 7.36
Kentucky 7.29
Connecticut 6.99
Nevada 6.50
Alabama 6.47
Miami OH 5.60
Colorado 5.20
Cincinnati 4.90
North Carolina 4.87
Georgia Tech 4.73
Syracuse 4.71
Temple 4.42
LSU 4.11
San Diego State 3.93
Louisville 3.64
Tennessee 3.38
La-Monroe 2.98
UCLA 2.90
W. Kentucky 2.83
TCU 2.26
Duke 2.26
Michigan State 2.17
Wyoming 2.15
Notre Dame 2.10
Georgia 1.75
Marshall 0.95
Boston College 0.89
Houston 0.77
South Carolina 0.69
Clemson 0.66
Texas Tech 0.63
UAB 0.59
Pittsburgh 0.22
Boise State -0.31
UTEP -0.33
Kent State -0.54
NM State -0.87
Navy -1.03
Washington State -1.11
Michigan -1.58
UNLV -1.70
Army -2.18
Oregon State -2.38
West Virginia -2.45
Toledo -3.02
Northern Illinois -3.05
Ohio State -3.52
Southern Miss -3.54
South Florida -3.73
Texas -3.74
Wake Forest -3.80
Arkansas State -3.83
Florida Atlantic -3.89
Troy State -4.43
Utah State -4.50
Arizona State -4.53
Illinois -4.63
Oklahoma State -4.80
La-Lafayette -5.04
Vanderbilt -5.60
Maryland -6.04
Oregon -6.07
Northwestern -6.21
Mississippi -6.48
Buffalo -6.70
Florida Int'l -7.69
Penn State -7.73
Purdue -7.73
Akron -8.20
Virginia -8.22
W. Michigan -8.44
Memphis -8.81
Arizona -8.94
Hawaii -9.13
Iowa -9.40
Florida State -9.48
Bowling Green -10.15
San Jose State -11.07
Kansas -11.52
Rutgers -11.57
Baylor -12.75
Missouri -13.06
Utah -14.15
Colorado State -14.92
NC State -15.20
New Mexico -15.22
E. Michigan -16.65
Florida -16.83
California -17.27
Tulsa -18.23
Oklahoma -18.72
Ball State -21.04
USC -23.37
Rice -35.90
 

 

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