2007 CFL MiniTracker

2007 CFL MINI-TRACKER Year-End Summary

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Statistics were kept for W-L Straight Up (SU), W-L Against The Spread (ATS) and the average number of points each prediction was off from the actual result (MEAN ERROR). e.g.HOM was picked to win by 2 & VIS won by 3 = 5 pts. off. There are 3 sets of statistics: 1st Half (Weeks 1-9), 2nd Half (Weeks 10-22) and Full Season (Weeks 1-22). Week 22 was the Grey Cup. In weeks 1-9 statistics, different skills are needed to create the starting ratings and predict the early weeks of the season. Used for starting ratings can be last year's data, Pre-season results, manual ratings (which might consider Roster/Coaches changes), or some mystical schemes. Any, some, or all of the above are used. What proportions (weighted values) will be used for the combinations? What should be the initial Home Field Advantage? Then during the early weeks, what larger adjustments are made to the ratings to minimize the effects of the starting ratings? What is the declining slope of the adjustments each week? How many weeks before all portions of of the starting ratings are phased out? Separate honors for the 1st Half of the season gives recognition to those who have the best grasp of these special talents.

The Participants:

1. The early line which was the 1st line I could find; usually either America's Line or Pinnacle Sports (LINE).
2. My system; Enhance Spread Projections (ESP).
3. The Sports Network (TSN); Chris Schultz makes the picks. He does not use a computer. I wanted to see how well this top CFL authority competed against the LINE and the computers. He makes his picks early in the week, so he does not have the benefit of the updated injury reports.
4. STAT FOX (FOX) from the NFL & NCAA Trackers.
5A. Brian Gabrielle (GABE) from the NFL Tracker. He is a professional handicapper who uses his computer system as a starting point when determining his advice ATS. I only used GABE's Ratings for the 1st 9 weeks. He started with last Year's Final Ratings and did not change them for the entire 1st Half.
5B. Ron Raymond, know as the Tipster (TIP),is in the same business as GABE. Ron has an ATS Data Base with 12 years of data that is used for his predictions. I used his picks for the 2nd Half replacing GABE.
6. Kenneth Massey Ratings (MASS); This system does not make predictions. I devised a method of converting his ratings to point spreads.
7. Steven Jens' System (JENS) from the NFL Tracker.
8. (RANK) Each week Scott Cullen on TSN.CA/CFL and Jim Lang on SPORTSNET.CA/CFL published Power Rankings from 1 through 8. I developed a Rating for each team by assigning 10 points to the top team and scaling down to 3 points for the 8th ranked team. The points from the 2 rankings were added to come up with a rating for each team. The ratings were modified slightly depending on the team's W-L Record. I used the ratings to determine a point spread; adding 3.5 points to the Home Team. * The ATS for the LINE below is the record of the Favorites VS its line. W = the Favorite covered the point spread. L = the Underdog won with the points or outright.

                    WEEKS 1-9 
            SU                ATS         MEAN            
     W - L-T  PCT PLC  W - L-T  PCT PLC  ERROR PLC 
 
LINE 20-10-2 .667 (4)  14-17-1 .452 (*)  12.52 (3)   
ESP  18-12-2 .600 (8)  14-17-1 .452 (6)  12.95 (4)  
TSN  21- 9-2 .700 (2)  19-11-2 .633 (2)  12.25 (2)
FOX  22- 8-2 .733 (1)  22- 9-1 .710 (1)  13.13 (6)
GABE 20-10-2 .667 (4)  19-12-1 .613 (3)  12.16 (1)
JENS 21- 9-2 .700 (2)  16-15-1 .516 (4)  14.13 (7)
MASS 20-10-2 .667 (4)  14-17-1 .452 (6)  14.45 (8)
RANK 20-10-2 .667 (4)  15-16-1 .484 (5)  13.11 (5)
          
                    WEEKS 10-22
                 
LINE 33-12-0 .733 (1)  23-21-1 .523 (*)   6.12 (1) 
ESP  30-15-0 .667 (4)  20-24-1 .455 (4)   6.59 (3)  
TSN  32-13-0 .711 (2)  22-19-4 .537 (2)   7.04 (6) 
FOX  27-18-0 .600 (7)  22-19-4 .537 (2)   6.97 (5)  
TIP  30-15-0 .667 (4)  25-16-4 .610 (1)   7.12 (7)
JENS 29-16-0 .644 (6)  17-26-2 .395 (5)   7.72 (8) 
MASS 27-18-0 .600 (7)  17-27-1 .386 (6)   6.69 (4)
RANK 31-14-0 .689 (3)  17-27-1 .386 (6)   6.18 (2) 
 
                    WEEKS 1-22
 
LINE 53-22-2 .707 (1)  37-38-2 .493 (*)  11.32 (1) 
ESP  48-27-2 .640 (7)  34-41-2 .453 (4)  11.97 (3)   
TSN  53-22-2 .707 (1)  41-30-6 .577 (3)  12.13 (4)
FOX  49-26-2 .653 (6)  44-28-5 .611 (1)  12.43 (6)  
GABE                                               
+TIP 50-25-2 .667 (4)  44-28-5 .611 (1)  12.17 (5) 
JENS 50-25-2 .667 (4)  33-41-3 .446 (5)  13.59 (8) 
MASS 47-28-2 .627 (8)  31-44-2 .413 (7)  12.69 (7) 
RANK 51-24-2 .680 (3)  32-43-2 .427 (6)  11.64 (2)

I determined the best overall predictor for each of the 3 sets of statistics. I added where they finished in each of the 3 categories. In the 1st Half, TSN came out on top followed by FOX and GABE. FOX gets the nod for 2nd over GABE because in SU W-L GABE had to share 4th place with 2 other systems. Amazingly GABE finished 1st in MEAN ERROR using the same Ratings for each week. In the 2nd Half TSN was the best overall again barely edging ESP and RANK, who tied for 2nd. Obviously TSN was #1 overall in the Full Season Stats. Rank was in 2nd place. If you combine the professional gamblers tag-team of GABE and TIP as one system, it would be one notch ahead of RANK. Last year TSN was mediocre in all categories throughout the season. GABE was the dominant overall each time. GABE was 1st in all categories in the 2nd Half and Full Season. In the 1st Half GABE finished 2nd in each classification which still was good for 1st place overall. FOX kept coming in 2nd best overall in all 3 groupings.

Joe Kasulis August 13, 2008