CFL Mini-Tracker
Here is the update of Joe Kasulis's 2009 CFL Mini-Tracker for 12/06/2009 for us rabid CFL fans.
At the top the LINE is the 1st odds I can find, usually Sportsbook CRIS on Monday afternoons. I do not update the Line except to change whole numbers
up/down by only a 0.5 point, if the line changes in the next day or so. This eliminates a point spread = to the actual score. In the same way systems that
predict in whole numbers are affected.
It's VIS @ HOM +/- points. i.e. - = home is favored, + = home gets points. RES is the actual result of the game.
F/D is the result of the Favorite ATS. i.e. Who won the bet FAV or DOG. AS is ATS. SU is SU. ERR is total points off your prediction is from the Result.
e.g. HOM was picked to win by 2 & VIS won by 3 = 5 pts ERR. I indicate each game's pick as being for the FAV or DOG before the games are played. I
round all picks to the nearest 0.5 of a point. Sometimes you will see a tiny + or -in the upper right corner of a pick. This is best explained by an example.
If the line is +3 and your pick rounds to +3.0, with a tiny +, it means you picked the FAV (e.g. +3.02). If you have a tiny -, you picked the Dog (e.g. +2.98).
Everything is totaled downward as we go from week to week.
If you wish to print these pages, Finest Quality at 105% and darkened works best for me.
The Participants:
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The early line (LINE) is explained above.
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My system; Enhance Spread Projections (ESP) from the NFL Tracker.
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The Sports Network (TSN); Chris Schultz makes the picks. He does not use a computer. I wanted to see how well this top CFL authority competed
against the LINE and the computers. He makes his picks early in the week, so he does not have the benefit of the updated injury reports. -
STAT FOX (FOX) from the NFL & NCAA Trackers.
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Eric Hollobaugh's System (HOLL) from the NFL Tracker.
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Kenneth Massey Ratings (MASS) from the NFL & NCAA Trackers.
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Steven Jens' System (JENS) from the NFL Tracker.
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(RANK) This is where I generate Ratings from Rankings. I use "experts" from various websites who rank the teams from 1 to 8 each week. I give the
top team 10 points & scale down to 3 for the 8th team. THE SCORE provides 6 individuals' Rankings and their totaled consensus by team. This is
easily converted to Ratings in decimal format. For the other half of each team's Rating, I combine rankings from members of TSN, SPORTS NET,
Winnipeg Free Press, Dunkel Index & Live Journal. I total & average them into decimal Ratings. I then adjust each team's Rating slightly, + or -, using
their Wins-Loses X 30%.
Point Spread Predictions = Ratings + 3.5 for the Home Team. -
(DUNK) is Dunkel Index from NCAA & NFL Trackers. 1st rating system. Started in 1929. Now run by 3rd generation of Dunkels.
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(LIVE) is community.livejounal.com CFL in sports section has Rankings & Predictions. He calls himself a stats cruncher, so I think he is using a
computer for rankings. Predictions I not sure. I think he starts with a spread sheet. -
(TRON) in sportspunter.com It uses a computer Sports Tron program. Does things that all systems do + has input from many sports tipsters. Picks
could change up to 2 hrs. B/4 game time. I'm using whatever is out there a day before 1st game. Then it would have a minimum of Tipster info. -
We have 3 Nutshell systems from Ray Waits and his wife.
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(NSH) is Ray's MOV System.
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Nutshell Girl (NSHG) is his wife's W-L based system.
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(NSHC) is the combination of the two.
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Predictions and Results:
