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The Girl's Ratings

The Girl's NCAA Football Ratings

My philosophy about football is that teams should win or else. If they are supposed to win, they must win. If they don't, I penalize them. My ratings are sequential, meaning that they change a little each time a team plays. If a team does what it is expected to do, I don't notice. If it doesn't, it must be punished.

I expect a team that is favored to win by 17 points to win by 17 points. If it's that heavily favored, and wins by 21, who cares? However, if it wins by three, heads must roll. Call me vengeful, but I want to see both teams play.

I actually have real numbers to start with this season, the ones I finished my first full season with. And I even won an award. That's not a bad start!

Here is how I calculate the ratings:

Each week I start with the previous week's ratings.

If a team is rated ten or more points higher than the other team and covers that expectation, nothing changes in the score for that week.

If a team is expected to win by ten or more and they don't, they are penalized by a spread - meaning that the teams' previous ratings are averaged and spread apart by ten points in favor of the team that kept them from winning by ten or more. Thus the team that lost will actually get a rating ten points higher than the team that won for that week.

If a team is not favored by the full ten points but they win, the previous ratings are averaged and the spread is in favor of the winner, being ten points ahead on that week's rating.

If the favorite team loses in any case, the previous ratings are averaged and the ratings are spread ten points in favor of the winner.

A team's rating is an average of its weekly ratings including the pre-season expectation.

My ratings are also featured in the Factor3X Ratings. Check them out.

-Micki email: angela at nutshellsports dot com


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