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I used to track the lines and rate the teams according to how the line changed from week to week. And I noticed something interesting. Just because a good team lost wasn't necessarily a reason for them to change a team's rating. That got my gears turning. A few years later I designed this system using that theory. It is based on head to head competition. There is no exaggerated margin of victory factor and there is no schedule strength. They are natural in this system. The wide spread of the margins sets a range of victory based on the victor's best performance, which is a better indicator of the outcome vs the spread though it tends to predict the actual outcome less well. The order of the teams is still the same. Thus good vs the spread, good order, not as good at predicting the exact margin of victory. Make your judgments based on that. Remember, too, that the numbers need a few weeks each season to stabilize.
14 October 2018